Weekly market recap (from Oct 17th to Oct 23rd)
Tokens have continued their gains over the last week, pricing in the approval of a BTC ETF. The market experienced FOMO yesterday, mainly because Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas found that The iShares Bitcoin Trust has been listed on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which clears NASDAQ trades). And the ticker will be $IBTC. Although this is not equivalent to the SEC’s approval of BlackRock’s BTC ETF application, it has never reached this stage in previous BTC ETF applications. The crypto market was set on fire.
On the macro level, crude oil has fallen, but regional wars will still put pressure on oil. It can be seen from the US CPI data in September that core CPI continues to decline and inflation further improves due to the efforts of the Federal Reserve. On the probability chart of CME’s forecast for FOMC interest rate hikes, we even saw a 1.5% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC in November. Although we all know that interest rate cuts will not happen immediately, inflation has indeed passed the worst period.
BTC
BTC had a 10% pump yesterday, breaking through the high point of 2023, with the highest price close to 36000, driving the FOMO sentiment of the entire market, and maintaining bullishness at a large level. After a week of gains, BTC is close to the early 2022 range (35000, 45000). At that time, due to the impact of interest rate hike expectations, BTC fluctuated within this range for 3 months and finally broke downward due to the Luna event. There is a lot of BTC accumulated in the range (of 35000, to 45000), and the selling pressure is huge. Every integer position may be a resistance level. We raise the resistance level to 35000 and the support level to 30000.
At the daily level, we can see from the WTA indicator that yesterday’s pump did not have the blue column representing the whale support. When BTC approached 29000, the whale had disappeared. Transaction participation is mainly brought about by the red column.
Switching to the 4h level, the ME indicator shows that BTC continues to be in a bullish trend, and the purple wavy area is farther away. As can be seen from the WTA indicator, the number of whales increased during the rise, but some long upward pin-bars appeared on the candle chart. That’s not good, but not enough to turn bearish.
Based on all the above information, we believe that BTC may fluctuate near the current level, and the possibility of continuing to rise is low.
ETH
As we mentioned in our last recap, ETH continued to perform weaker than BTC last week. This also shows that in the market, BTC ETF drives BTC, and BTC drives other tokens. ETH broke above the early October high of 1750, which was accompanied by increased trading volume. So we raise the resistance level to 1900 and the support level to 1750. On a large level, ETH turns neutral and will continue to remain volatile.
During last week’s rise, whales did not appear in the early stages of the rise. In contrast, the appearance of whales was concentrated yesterday. This confirms the weak performance of ETH in the previous days. Whales will only participate in ETH transactions when there is good news.
Switch to level 4h. At this level, the situation for ETH and BTC is close. During the pumping process, whales participated in the transaction. Although an upward pin bar also appeared, the length was not significant and was not enough to disrupt the bullish trend. Looking at the ME indicator, ETH is changing from a bearish trend to a bullish trend.
Based on all the above information, we believe that for ETH, the current price level does not face as strong a selling pressure as BTC. Bulls strengthened in the later stages of the rise and may outperform BTC in the short term, but they will still be driven by BTC in the long term.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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