Weekly Market Recap (from Mar 26th to Apr 1st)
The market enters April. This is the month when BTC and BTC forked coins will be halved. Historically, BTC has experienced a certain correction (greater than 20%) before the past four halving times, and then started the main rise of the bull market. There was no significant drawdown in this cycle. Perhaps the BTC ETF and staking activities have increased the demand for BTC and ETH compared to the past.
On the macro front, in the past three months after entering 2024, the performance of employment data and CPI in the United States has not been good, and the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts have gradually moved backward as the indicators have deteriorated. The market currently expects that interest rates will begin to be cut at the June FOMC, but judging from the current economic data, there is still the possibility of further postponement.
BTC
BTC fluctuated for nearly a week after rebounding to 70000. For bulls, it is acceptable to maintain fluctuations near ATH, but in terms of trading volume, during the rebound process, it is less than the past average. Judging from the WTA indicators, last week’s rebound was not supported by whales. This is not good. The ME indicator continues to remain bullish.
Switching to the 4h level, the situation is close to the daily level. The rebound did not perform well in terms of trading volume or whale participation. It can be seen from the MBF indicator that during the callback of BTC, there continues to be a sentiment of buying the bottom. But it is not visible from the daily indicator.
To sum up, we believe that although BTC rebounded to around 70000, the bulls has not confirmed its power. Bears may strengthen at any time, so we need to remain cautious. We raise the resistance level to 74000 and the support level to 61000.
ETH
ETH gradually weakened after hitting 4000 in mid-March. The price rebounded above 3500 and then entered a range. The rebound is weaker than that of BTC, which may also be caused by the decline in popularity after Dencun’s upgrade or the unclear prospect of ETH ETF. And there is currently a large amount of ETH staked in the staking or restaking protocol, which poses a risk of volatility.
From an indicator perspective, ETH remains weak. There was no blue columns representing whales during last week’s rebound, and there was a decline in trading volume. Although the ME indicator remains bullish, the wavy area gradually narrows.
Switching to the 4h level, based on the recent fluctuation, the ME indicator maintains a slightly bearish, but this is not important. One of the few things makes us exciting is that during the callback of ETH, MBF showed bottom-buying sentiment, which is consistent with BTC.
To sum up, we believe that ETH is in worse shape than BTC. The power of bulls weakens. We maintain the original resistance level of 4000 and lower the support level to 3100.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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