Weekly market recap (From Jun 25th to Jul 1st)
The PCE of May was better than the previous value, and the power of shorts has slowed down. This Friday will usher in important NFP. This will restart the medium-term trend. Many financial markets pulled back after rise in NFP in last month. Although we all know that the increase in NFP is likely to come from political needs and the increase in illegal immigration. Therefore, there is a divergence between it and the unemployment rate. However, with the market’s full interpretation, we believe that as long as NFP is not significantly higher than expected, the market may ignore NFP and price a new round of interest rate cuts.
The SEC recently returned some applicants’ S-1 documents regarding ETH ETF and required them to submit documents again within July 8. ETH ETF is getting closer. The formal approval of the BTC ETF is after the U.S. stock market closes, so the ETH ETF may also be within this time point. Economic data aside, the ETH ETF will be key over the next 10 days.
Although Mt. Gox brought FUD, the BTC ETF has turned to net inflows for 5 consecutive days, which shows that institutions have reopened BTC.
BTC
As we predicted last week, BTC rebounded after approaching its lows. Of course, this is also related to the bottom-buying sentiment prompted by the MBF indicator previous week. Judging from the WTA indicator, the blue column representing the whale does not appear. Last week’s trading volume was consistent with previous weeks. The bulls strengthened, but overall remain on the sidelines. The long-term fluctuation weakened the bullish trend of the ME indicator, and the wavy area further narrowed.
To sum up, we believe that multiple events will determine the trend of BTC this week, and before that, it may remain fluctuating. We maintain our original resistance level of 74000 and support level of 58000.
ETH
ETH has remained fluctuation over the past week, as we expected. But the ETH ETF is about to be launched, and this cycle is still for ETH. The response from an indicator level is lackluster. There are no obvious whales on the WTA indicator, and trading volume has not increased. The ME indicator continues to fluctuate, causing the wavy area to further narrow.
In summary, we believe that ETH’s performance this week may be stronger than BTC, but this depends on the time when the ETH ETF is listed. We maintain our original resistance level 4000 and support level 2800.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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