Weekly market recap(from July 20th to July 26th)
Hi fans, another week has passed. The cryptocurrency did not sustain strong buying power after the spree early last week, and the price falling back. With the benefit of the ETH merger, we see signs of a recovery in capital, and it is not in a hurry to leave the crypto looking for a safe haven for QT. But on the other hand, it should be noted that even if the capital is growing up, there is still a big gap from supporting a large-scale rebound.
This week the market will face the impact of macroeconomic data. This Wednesday and Thursday will announce the interest rate decision and the US GDP of Q2. According to the CME prediction model, +75bp is more likely than +100bp. Although both are bad for risky assets, but various markets have already fully priced in +75bp. The situation of Q2 GDP may bring more additional surprises. At present, according to US10YR and US2YR, Q2 is likely to maintain a recession, thus affecting the supply and demand situation.
After BTC was driven by ETH at the beginning of last week, the bullish power increased, from a follower to a leader. But the bulls are not strong enough to move the price up near the resistance level, which has quite a distance. Price slowed down in mid-week and fell after forming pin-bar twice. This is very similar to the performance of the bulls at the 4h level in the previous two rebounds. Also after confirming the bullish decay, a long red bar formed yesterday with high volume, and the price fell back into the green range. The good thing is that during the last week’s fall, the bears did not have a strong down-power at positions such as 40,000 and 30,000 (in the previous two green ranges), and the bearish power has weakened. It is unlikely that a dump will be formed on this place.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation. Although the rise were suppressed last week, the bears were not as strong as before. Therefore, we believe there is a high probability that the price will remain fluctuate. You need to pay attention on the FOMC and Q2GDP , which are more important than technical analysis this week. We lowered the resistance level to 23500 and kept support level at 17800 and subprime support level at 18900.
After the pump of ETH last week, the price approached the resistance level, and the bears gradually increased. It has fluctuated at a high level for 6 days. These 6 candles all have long pins. The original strong bullish power was repeatedly consumed here, and finally yesterday , the price has fallen sharply with a high volume. Although last week was the best opportunity, it is not the only one for ETH. The advantage in the early stage makes it still possible to break through 1700. The bears is not decisive, only can cause another decline by consuming the power of the bulls, which is different from the previous large-scale declines.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation, and there is a certain possibility that the rebound has not ended. ETH’s better position allows us to reserve the possibility of rising. We have retained last week’s resistance level at 1700 and support level at 1330. But still need to pay attention to the FOMC and Q2GDP, too large deviation from expectations may destroy our TA.
SOL has seen a bigger price drop over than BTC and ETH the last week. SOL starts first at the bottom and there is no more oil in the tank at this moment. As we mentioned in the previous recap, SOL rebounded because of the price was already at a very low position in its historical trend, and a lot of chips were piled below 30 to provide support. Relative to ETH’s rebound that is due to merge, SOL’s bulls are more defensive and difficult to sustain.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation. We maintained support level at 32 and resistance level at 47 from last week. The gap between bulls and bears in the last week is not large, which is similar to BTC and ETH, therefore, we maintain the judgment of fluctuation. Again, the FOMC&Q2GDP releases on Wednesday and Thursday remain to be seen, which are a bit more important this week.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.