Weekly market recap(from July 13th to July 19th)
The CPI:9.1% was announced on last Wednesday, higher than expected, the voice of raising interest rates by +100bp became higher, and the0 cryptocurrencies dumped directly, but the dovish remarks of Biden and Fed officials have gradually turned the market to +75bp, risk assets turned to rise. The merger of ETH catalyzed the rising. ETH has gone out of the independent trend, and it has also driven the rise of the whole cryptocurrency market, and the sentiment is positive.
At the macro level, Biden ended his four-day visit to the Middle East, during which he did not persuade countries such as Saudi Arabia to significantly increase oil production. You know, the dovish remarks from both Biden and the officials on the CPI is based on a pullback in domestic oil prices. The effect of SPR is not as great as the increase in production. In this case, in addition to the FOMC at the end of this month, the OPEC meeting next month is equally important for risk assets.
BTC started to rebound after reaching to subprime support level last week, than the price gradually increased and broke our resistance level on Monday and is currently waiting for a bullish confirmation. In fact, in the first half of the rise, the bulls were not firm, the decline of the trading volume and the upper shadows of the short candles are more like movement in the fluctuation. After the price hit our resistance level, the bears started to increase and the price fell back with a regular pattern. However, Monday’s rising with high volume broke the upper rail of the range, but whether it can continue requires bulls to confirm above the upper rail.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation. The price is currently breaking above the upper rail, but it takes nearly two days to confirm, and the bears are currently pushing the price lower again, so we give this conclusion. If the bulls can finally hold their ground, which will bring more bullish power, the rebound will continue for some time and there is a lot of space to the new resistance level at 26500. If the bears sink the price into the range again, a valid breakdown has not occurred. We kept support level at 17800 and subprime support level at 18900 and raised resistance level to 26500.
ETH had a brilliant performance last week. The positives from the Ethereum merger prompted rising and maintained continuity. After hitting the given support level, the bulls grew rapidly and three green candles allowed the price to bounce back to the upper rail of the range. Further rising formed a breakout on Jul.16, and rising with high volume on Monday formed a bullish confirmation. The performance of ETH led to a market-wide rebound that saw most cryptocurrencies break through their previous highs. ETH itself remains in a bullish trend.
Conclusion: High probability that the rebound is not over, and it may be the start of the rising. The bulls have been confirmed, so we think it will be difficult for the rebound to end quickly. On the other hand, ETH rose by 18% on Monday. This value is very huge, and the trading volume is heavy, with reversal energy. This week we raised support level at 1330, which was confirmed by the bulls, and resistance level at 1700, which was a low before the decline.
Driven by ETH, SOL showed an upward trend last week. After the price fell to the previous low, the bullish power increased, and the price rose. On Jul.16 and Jul.18, it broke through the high points of the previous two rebounds, and on Jul.18, the volume rose, establishing the bullish strength. The overall magnitude is not as strong as ETH, but closer to BTC, and the driving effect is average.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation, and there is a certain possibility that the rebound has not ended. Although the price broke through the given resistance level, the magnitude was not large, and immediately ushered in the next resistance level, so we believe that there is a high probability of fluctuation. On the other hand, judging from the performance after the breakthrough, the bears of SOL have not increased significantly, so the possibility that the rebound will not end is preserved. We raised resistance level to 47 and support level to 32.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.