Weekly market recap(from January 24th to January 31st)
We are in a bullish trend and just need to cool down and think how far ahead we are.
In the first month of 2023, the crypto market outperformed all other assets (nearly +40% gains). The slowdown in Fed rate hikes and the fall in CPI make people feel that spring is approaching. At this time, what you need to know is what the rapid rise in risk assets means for the policymaker. This week will usher in FOMC and employment data. Although there is a high probability that the interest rate will be raised by 25bp, we believe that Powell’s speech will bring uncertainty to the market.
Last week, after the price approached 24000, the rising speed slowed down, and the number of pins gradually increased. The next target position was the high point during the ETH merger period last year. Unlike the correction in mid-Jan(the gray part in the figure), the stagnation of the rise this time is accompanied by longer pins and takes a longer period. The trading volume returned to low circulation again during the weekend. If you are an old crypto, you know that this means that the bulls are gradually losing momentum. The most important point is that after the re-attack on 24000 was launched on Sunday, the price reversed obviously on Monday. The strengthening of bears was very obvious.
Conclusion: There is a high probability that the callback has not ended. We draw this conclusion based on the fact that at the beginning of this round of rise, the trading volume was not particularly large, and it can be seen that the overall trading volume is lower than that in Nov last year when it fell. Therefore, in the current situation where bulls decay and bears strengthen, we believe that the depth and duration of the callback will be relatively strong. We raised the resistance level to 25000 (the high of the ETH merger period) and raised the support level to 21500.
ETH’s performance last week was still weaker than that of BTC. After reaching 1650, the bears strengthened very obviously. ETH is always controlled below the given resistance level. This wave of rising from the beginning of Jan did not show a strong trading volume, which was significantly different from the trading volume in the Nov-dump. Last Sunday’s green candle was quickly covered by the red candle of this Monday.
Conclusion: There is a high probability that the callback has not ended. The bears are stronger than the BTC. This makes us think that ETH’s pullback will also be strong in depth and duration. Based on the price has fallen below the previous high, so we don’t make a new support level for it with the same logic as BTC. We still retain the previously given support level 1330 and the resistance level 1650.
The bulls in SOL have decayed before reaching the given resistance level. As the driver of the initial rising, the trading volume and gains in the second half of Jan have weakened. In detail, Sunday’s green candle did not effectively break through the previous high and was quickly covered by the subsequent red candle.
Conclusion: There is a high probability that the callback has not ended. The callback has already begun after Monday’s red candle. Like BTC and ETH, SOL will also enter a period of callback, which will be relatively strong in depth and duration. Based on the short-term direction down and volatility has risen this month, we retain the original resistance level at 28 and the support level at 17.6.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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