Weekly Market Recap (from Jan 30th to Feb 5th)
At the FOMC last week, interest rates remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The labour market showed strong performance in the U.S. employment report released on Friday. In an interview over the weekend, Powell said a rate cut was possible this year, but based on current economic data, it was unlikely that an interest rate cut would be imminent. CME currently shows traders believe the first rate cut this year will likely occur at the FOMC in May. So the market will usher in the dual benefits of BTC halving and monetary policy changes from April to MAY.
Since February, the reduction of GBTC holdings has slowed down. Although GBTC may eventually be cleared due to high fees, overall BTC ETF funds are still showing a slow inflow.
BTC
Volatility fell last week, BTC remained fluctuating around 42000, and the market has digested the reduction in GBTC holdings. Judging from the ME indicator, BTC continues to maintain a bullish trend, and the purple wavy area further narrows. Because BTC was almost fluctuating in a narrow range last week, it is reasonable that no whales were participating in the trading on the WTA indicator. The MBF indicator shows bottom buying sentiment after BTC approaches a given support level, with a small value.
Switching to the 4h level, the indicator does not reflect much information. BTC maintained a long period of fluctuation after rebounding from 38000, and the ME indicator switched to a bullish trend.
In summary, after the market fully priced the BTC ETF, BTC has returned to a state of low volatility. It may continue to fluctuate. We maintain the original support level of 38000 and the resistance level of 48000.
ETH
After the rebound, the volatility of ETH also decreased, maintaining a narrow range around 2300. The trading volume of ETH has dropped significantly. Although the WTA indicator does not show whale participation in trading, the grey columns representing retail investors are also declining. The bullish trend continues on the ME indicator.
Switch to the 4h level, where you can see the decline in trading volume more clearly. The ME indicator remains in a bearish trend. ETH is a follower, with traders tracking ETH pricing based on BTC’s rebound. ETH turned active for a while after the approval of the BTC ETF, but it soon disappeared, and discussions of Dencun and the ETH ETF did not prevent trading volumes from declining.
To sum up, ETH is likely to continue to fluctuate this week. We maintain our original resistance level of 2700 and support level of 2200.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
Twitter | TradingView | Telegram | Indicators Intro | Free Trials
