Weekly Market Recap (from Jan 23rd to Jan 29th)
Funds continue to flow out of GBTC. Since the BTC ETF was approved, US$5b has flowed out, and at the current speed, GBTC is expected to be cleared by the end of February. What makes us curious is why the fee of GBTC is higher than that of several other ETFs. Investors are not willing to bear such a high cost, and it is difficult for GBTC to increase assets. We believe that the outflow of funds from GBTC will continue to pressure BTC prices, but it will still move towards ATH in the medium and long term.
BTC
Last week, BTC began to rebound after approaching 38000, and the price returned to above 42000. We can see from the candle chart that before December last year, BTC maintained a fluctuation below 38000. But when the market learned that BTC ETF was likely to be approved in January, overpricing began. Therefore, BTC fell back to 38000 last week, indicating that overpricing has been repaired.
After a week of gains, BTC continues to maintain a bullish trend. The purple wavy area on the ME indicator has not narrowed further. However, judging from the trading volume and WTA indicators, last week’s rebound was not supported by whales, and the trading volume was also lower than in the past.
Switching to the 4h level, the ME indicator is changing from a bearish trend to a bullish trend. But on the WTA indicator, it is similar to the daily level. The rebound last week didn’t have a lot of whale support.
To sum up, whales believe that the current price of BTC is still not an entry point. BTC is more likely to be fluctuating this week. We maintain the original resistance level of 48000 and support level of 38000.
ETH
ETH dropped to reach our given support level and gave up its previous gains to return to its original range. ETH, like BTC, has given up its over-pricing of BTC ETF and returned to the long-term range. But judging from last week’s performance, ETH has become a follower again. After testing the support level for several consecutive days, it began to rebound, driven by the market.
At the daily level, ETH continues to maintain a bullish trend. However, the rebound brought by the bulls was small, and there was not much support from whales.
Switching to the 4h level, we can see that although whales participated in the previous dump, they did not appear during last week’s rebound. And the ME indicator suggests that it is currently in a bearish trend.
In summary, ETH may continue to follow BTC this week, but the power of the bulls is still weak. It’s hard to imagine what the current ETH/BTC exchange rate would be without staking.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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