Weekly market recap(from Feb. 1st to Feb. 7th)
BTC
After pumping on Feb.4, the price broke the bearish channel and the resistance level(40500). The short side did not resist fiercely and the price stayed at 42800. The bearish channel is no longer effective. It is still difficult to say whether it can start an uptrend. Judging from the short’s performance of the last week, the weakening of the strength is obvious. During the period from Jan.24 to Feb.1, the market actually did not have a clear direction, and the price was rising slowly. When the short side tried to start a new round of attack on Feb.2, the long side directly pumped. Such a situation has not appeared in this bearish channel.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation and there is a certain possibility that the rebound has not ended. We believe that the current strong performance cannot recover the wounds caused by the short at the weekly scale. So the possibility of directly opening a bullish channel is low. Based on the performance of the long side last week, this rebound is not over. The support level is 40500 and the resistance level is 46000.
ETH
ETH also exited the bearish channel, and the price returned to the level of Jan.20. ETH performed better than BTC last week. The long side started to attack on Jan.28 and touched the resistance level(2760) mentioned in the last recap. Although the short side strengthened after that, the long side directly rose and made a confirmation under the strong performance of the entire market. And at the weekly scale, the long’s strength has been destructive to the short.
Conclusion: Rising after correction. The long side made a V reversal. But the volume has been low in recent days and the current price has the selling pressure of the pinbar on Jan.20. It may rise after correction. We set the support level as the previous resistance (2760) and the current resistance level is 3170.
SOL
Luckily, before reaching the critical support level, the long side’s power strengthened and exited the bearish channel as well. But SOL performed worst of the three last week. The distance between the upper rail of the bearish channel and the current price is very short. Inactive trading volume also showed that the confidence of long isn’t enough.
Conclusion: Mostly fluctuation. Carried by the strong market not itself, SOL exited the bearish channel. We doubt the strength of the long and the price may fluctuate within the range (100, 127).
ADDITION
The high sensitivity of cryptocurrencies to US monetary policy for several months has raised our team’s focus on US economic data. You can see that most of the cryptocurrencies have a pullback on Feb.2 after hitting the upper rail of their bearish channel. But finally, they all pumped and confirmed the strength of long on Feb.4.
We noticed that January NFP(46.7) released on Feb.4 is much higher than market expectations. Such a large distance is not friendly to risky assets like cryptocurrencies. But in terms of market performance, almost all cryptocurrencies fell in the first hour, then rose rapidly and had a reversal at the daily scale. The long seem to launch a great counterattack in the policy window period, even though the NFP is bearish for risky assets. Although the tightening expectation has priced the forward crypto asset value. There are still 37 days for long until the date when the next FOMC(Mar.15) begin. It’s not enough for traditional finance, but more than enough for 7*24 crypto market. On the other hand, at the current price level, if economic data such as CPI and NFP for Jan will remain bearish for risky assets, it will be difficult to obtain a larger marginal contribution. Overall, it’s a good opportunity for the long. Follow up a victory with hot pursuit.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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