Weekly Market Recap (from Feb 13th to Feb 19th)
The market started a new round of rise after digesting the reduction of GBTC holdings. Even after the release of less-than-expected U.S. CPI data for January, the market only called back slightly and continued to maintain a strong upward trend.
Although the max drawdown of BTC in this bull market has always remained at 25%, which is much lower than the level of the previous bull market, it can be seen from such as Glassnode that the ‘sell-the-news’ correction after the ETFs launched has resulted in a healthy reset of several metrics. The STH supply in profit fell from its peak at ~100%, to retest its all-time-average of 57.5%. Risks have been released, and the continued increase in stablecoin supply has provided support for the rise.
BTC
BTC entered a narrow range after rising. In this round of bullish trends, whenever BTC breaks through the year’s high and starts to fluctuate, a correction is about to begin. BTC is getting closer to all-time highs and has almost repaired all the losses caused by the interest rate hikes.
Looking at the indicators, trading volume and whale participation are once again declining, with almost no whales participating in trades during the February rally. This phenomenon reflects that both whales and shrimps are more cautious after price rises close to ATH. From the ME indicator, BTC continues to maintain a positive bullish trend, and the purple wavy area widens.
In summary, we raise the resistance level to 56000 and the support level to 48000. BTC is likely to undergo a correction this week.
ETH
ETH surged during the Lunar New Year, surpassing 2900. Although BTC has begun to fluctuate, ETH continues to rise with no signs of a correction. There is a possibility of compensation for ETH. ETH’s decline will be greater than that of BTC in 2022. Based on the increase of BTC, the relative valuation of ETH should be at 3500. Of course, this is only a relative valuation. After all, ETH has performed worse than BTC during most of this bullish trend. It is also possible that the popularity of restaking protocols such as Eigenlayer has driven the purchasing power of ETH, resulting in ETH’s strong performance.
Judging from the indicators, as the price gets higher and higher, the participation of whales and trading volume decrease, which is very similar to BTC. Holders have a cautious attitude. The ME indicator continues to maintain a bullish trend and the wavy area expands.
To sum up, we believe that the rise of ETH is likely to continue. We raise the resistance level to 3300 and the support level to 2700.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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