Weekly market recap (from Dec 12th to Dec 18th)
On Tuesday last week, the U.S. Department of Labor released the CPI for November, and the CPI dropped further. At Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Powell said that although the possibility of raising interest rates will be retained in the FOMC report, for him, the interest rate hikes are over, and various factors will be considered in subsequent monetary policy adjustments. Shortly after Powell finished his speech, CME’s interest rate path showed that the market predicted that there would be five 25bp interest rate cuts in 2024, with the earliest one occurring in March 2024. This provides conditions for BTC to rise further.
BTC
The performance of BTC last week exceeded our expectations. The long red candle did not repel the bulls and declines were not seen. Although BTC has not broken through the given resistance level upward, maintaining fluctuation is already the best way. We maintain our previous resistance level of 43000 and support level of 38000. Judging from the ME indicator, BTC continues to maintain a bullish trend, and the purple-wavy range widens. However, WTA indicators do not show optimism. The blue column representing the whale does not appear on the daily level.
Switching to the 4h level, the ME indicator remains bullish, but the fluctuation makes the purple wavy area narrow. Although the WTA indicator shows that blue columns representing whales appeared during the recent rise, there are too few whales and even the grey bars representing retail investors are short.
To sum up, we believe that it is difficult for BTC to continue to rise at this position, and there is a high probability of fluctuations or corrections.
ETH
ETH maintained a decline with fluctuation last week. We can see that the fluctuations made it reach the given resistance level and the given support level, but did not break through them. Relative to BTC, ETH has a higher trading volume, but the bulls are weaker. We maintain our previous resistance level 2300 and support level 2120. Judging from the ME indicator, ETH maintains a bullish trend. On the WTA indicator, there are not many whales.
Switching to the 4h level, the situation of ETH is not good. Although there are consecutive green candles, hardly whales to be seen on the WTA indicator, and retail investor participation is also decreasing. On the ME indicator, the purple wavy area is close to disappearing. The current rally is fragile.
To sum up, we believe that ETH will most likely fall and may remain fluctuating.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the article constitutes investment advice. The article objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions based on the information contained in the article are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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