Pendle Analysis & Market Overview

Sypool Protocol
12 min readJan 19, 2024

1. Project Overview

Pendle is a protocol that enables the tokenization and trading of future yield. With the creation of a novel AMM that supports assets with time decay, Pendle gives users more control over future yield by providing optionality and opportunities for its utilization.

Graph 1.1: TVL of Pendel on 5 chains

Pendle engages in trading across five blockchain networks, namely Ethereum, Arbitrum, BSC, Optimism and Avalance. Among these chains, Ethereum holds the highest market share valued at $148.03 million and was established earliest on June 19, 2021. Arbitrum follows as the second most active chain for transactions with a market capitalization of $111.69 million on the 15th of Jan, 2024.

Considering the significant impact and the market capitalization of both chains regards Pendle token, the following section will solely focus on discussing the distribution of ownership between these two chains.

https://defillama.com/protocol/pendle?mcap=true&tvl=true&tokenPrice=true

2. Fundamental Analysis

The total supply of Pendle is 258,446,028, this significant number represents the overall quantity of tokens that have been created and are available for use within the designated ecosystem.

With a circulating supply of 236,885,588 tokens accounting for approximately 91.66% of the overall circulation, Pendle demonstrates a high circulating speed. This indicates that there is active participation and utilization of Pendle within its ecosystem.

Furthermore, the observed 24-hour trading volume indicates a market activity rate of approximately 22.04%, suggesting that the market is at a high level, which means a vibrant marketplace where participants are actively engaged in buying and selling digital assets.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/pendle/

3. Token Information

4. Ownership Distribution Analysis of Pendle on Ethereum

Table 4.1: Pendle Top 30 holders on Etthereum (Data Source: etherscan and OKlink.com)

-Decentralized ownership distribution, inactive transaction frequency, and public exchange accounts dominant

In addition to the publicly listed addresses such as Rank1, only 33.124% of Pendle ownership among the top 30 holders is accounted for by private accounts starting from Rank 4.

Furthermore, based on Table 4.1, it can be inferred that only one transaction was conducted by a private account (Rank 30), while others involved public exchange traders. The overall balance indicates a cash inflow of $155,999.389 at the token price of $1.710 on January 12th, 2024.

#Rank 1–3 are public exchange traders.

#Rank 4

Diagram 4.2: Rank 4 Assets Composition

Rank 4 comprises two tokens, namely Pendle and esLBR. Rank4 has 8.94% of the ownership, and holds a quantity of 23,102,201.636 Pendle tokens valued at $40,184,842.125 with a unit price of $1.74. Additionally, it possesses 10k esLBR tokens worth $13,414.27.

Graph 4.3:Token Balance History of Rank4

Based on the stock holding situation and activities in graph 4.3, it could be seen that Rank4 has been associated with the token for quite a long period since June 16, 2021, at that time the token went public not long time (The token project Initial Date: April 28, 2021). The account's sudden buying and selling of stocks so many times also reveals that the holder took a close look at the token, and monitored the Pendle token in market performance from time to time in such a long period, which is extremely patience-taking.

Due to the scope of the report, one transaction intention is critically discussed. The latest and bigger amount of transaction activity happened on the 14th of August, 2023. Cause the price detail is hard to pursue on the Binance trading view, thus one way directly and clearly shows on the above graph 4.4.

The account balance reached its lowest point of 1508.42 tokens on July 4th after experiencing a continuous decline in stock activities. Interestingly, during early July, the token price peaked before gradually declining; this period coincided with selling activities aimed at capitalizing on the high prices prevailing at that time.

On July 4, the token price is still not lower than $0.845. On August 14, it held the balance and kept it till today by 24,222,201.63 Pendle tokens at a price of around $0.71. The trading principle is to buy low and sell high. The holder knows and is familiar with the potential and price history trending of the token.

Such transactions also happened earlier, which witnesses that the Rank4 account holder closely monitored the Pendle token and he/she is an experienced investor.

#Rank 5

Rank 5 takes 8.34% of the ownership, with the balance of 21,560,440, worth $37,467,913.59. It only has one token in the account.

Rank 5 involve in the Pendle token trading since April 27, 2021. The starting amount at that time is 23,000,000. However, this token starts to have an official public price on April 28, 2021, which means the holder might be the project's internal participant.

The Pendel token balance also experiencing high volatility since it possesses. The vibration fluctuation and frequency are not as large and much as rank 4.

By analyzing the latest and biggest transaction on 7 Oct. It can be seen the balance hit the bottom of 760,440 on 17 Aug 2023 and with a sudden buying on 7 Oct 2023, the balance reached 23,760,440. The price difference interval is almost $0.1 per token, giving the investor a reasonable income.

#Rank 6

Similarly, Rank 6 exclusively holds Pendle in its token account, representing a stake of 4.32%. It has held the token since 28 July 2021. The remaining balance amounts to $11,177,190.01, equivalent to a valuation of $19,435,301.39. Throughout the observed period, the holding situation remained relatively stable except for October 2022. It sold a large amount of the asset on 28 Oct and quickly bought the stock back on 29 Oct.

#Rank 7 is a Crypto.com deposit public account.

#Rank 8

Similarly, Rank 8 possesses only one token, accounting for 1.9428% of the total tokens with a quantity of 5,201,200. The corresponding asset value amounts to $8,811,851.53. Notably, rank 8 exhibited minimal activity and recorded only a single transaction on August 18th, 2023.

#Rank 9 is the Pendle stake account.

#Rank 10

The portfolio comprises five distinct tokens, of which only two hold significant value: ETH and PENDLE. PENDLE accounts for 3,439,515.5 tokens, representing 1.3308% of total token ownership. Notably, on June 14th, 2023 there was only a single recorded transaction involving this token.

#Rank 14–17

It is noteworthy that Rank 14–17 exhibit evidence of manipulation by a single individual, as indicated by the consistent holding amount and the division of 1.8 million tokens into five transfers: one transfer with an inflow of 900k tokens, and four transfers with each containing 225,000 tokens. Additionally, the transactions are simultaneously executed on the same day.

5. Ownership Distribution Analysis of Pendle on Arbitrum

Table 5.1: Pendle Top 30 holders on Arbitrum (Data Source: Arbiscan and OKlink.com)

-Dispersed allocation, frequent transaction activities by private holders

As shown in Table 5.1, the ownership distribution demonstrates a dispersed allocation. The top 30 ranks that possess the token account for only 64.641% of total ownership, excluding public exchange accounts such as Rank 1–3. Among the top 30 positions, private ownership represents merely 26.82%, which is relatively small compared to most token ownership distributions. Additionally, the chart above reveals that after Rank 10, there is a significant increase in ownership percentage (47.32%), indicating further dispersion of holdings. Private owners begin from Rank 4 with a share of only 3.94%, while the remaining balance amounts to $1,036,692.83.

The transactions within 24 hours demonstrate a relatively high frequency level. Most of the transactions involve small quantities. One notable cash inflow is observed from Rank8, which purchased 627211.23 tokens, representing its overall balance. Conversely, Rank7 experienced the largest outflow by reducing its position by 616204.02 tokens. Overall, the top 30 positions collectively generated a balanced income of 189933.03 tokens, equivalent to $15019.9 at a token price of $0.0791 per unit; this reinforces their market position.

#Rank 1–3 are CEX and DEX.

#Rank 4

Rank 4 only holds one token of Pendle, accounting for 3.94% of the total ownership, with a remaining balance of 1,036,692.83 valued at $1,838,333.6. Due to its nature as a smart contract, frequent transfers occur with an average frequency of one transfer every few minutes.

#Rank5 is the pool of DEX.

#Rank6

The sixth rank comprises three distinct tokens, among which Pendle stands out with a significant balance of 974,188.56 tokens, equivalent to $1,732,262.73 in value. This represents a token ownership share of 3.7%.

The account holder only made 5 transactions regarding the Pendle token, with 4 of them involving significant amounts of buying. These transactions constitute a major portion of their overall asset composition. From the chart provided above, it can be observed that until January 15th, 2024, the price of the token is at $1.62.

This inference suggests that the account holder may have been strategic in their decision-making process and took advantage of favourable market conditions to maximize their returns.

#Rank7

The investment portfolio of Rank7 demonstrates a well-balanced composition, comprising USDC, Pendle, and WETH. Both USDC and Pendle hold similar amounts, with USDC valued at $1,188,214.37 and Pendle at $1,136,727.87. Given the association of Pendle with a smart contract in this context, transactions occur frequently throughout the day but in limited numbers. Consequently, the underlying investment intention remains less apparent.

#Rank 8

Rank 8’s asset comprised 4 tokens, including ETH, Pendle, USDC, and ARB. Among these, Pendle is the most important component, it has 627,211.229 tokens in the account worth $1,116,193.232. It in total has 5 transactions since 11/28/2023, and executed by smart contracts.

The transaction seems to have some pattern, inflow and outflow with the same amount within a short period. The fifth transfer has not been cleared yet.

#Rank 9

The 9th rank account exclusively holds the Pendle token, representing a 1.88% ownership share on the Arbitrum chain. This account currently maintains a balance of 494,280.71 tokens, equivalent to $39,087.718 in value. Additionally, Rank 9 is a smart contract and actively engages in smart contract activities at regular intervals.

#Rank 10–11 are the public exchange accounts.

6. Position Distribution

Binance listed Pendle relatively late, but it has gained major trading volume. After this round of rise, Pendle has moved away from the main accumulation area, even on other exchanges.

7. Contract Data

The Coinglass platform presents a real-time long/short ratio of 0.9436 over 24 hours. This ratio indicates a well-balanced market sentiment with a bearish tendency.

The Binance platform currently holds the dominant position in Cake contract trading. The long/short ratio exhibits a bullish inclination of 56.10% on a scale of 0.001.

8. Recent News Highlights

8.1 After ETFs, which crypto narratives to watch next? (2024–01–12)

LSD rebounded strongly

At the same time, the LSD sector also rebounded strongly, among which the leading LDO also broke through 4 USDT within the day for a short time, hitting a new high since the OKX line, and the cumulative increase since December 20 has exceeded 100%.

Other projects on the same track also rose, such as RPL broke through 37 USDT, an increase of nearly 50% in 4 days; SSV peaked at 38.62 USDT, more than three times the October 20 price (12.22 USDT); PENDLE, which recovered strongly after entering the LSD war, also broke through 1.7 USDT, hitting a new record high. LBR breaks through 1.4 USDT, up about 40% in 48 hours and so on.

9. Summary

9.1 Ethereum and Arbitrum chain comparison

The market capitalization of Pendle on Ethereum and Arbitrum is currently valued at $148.03 million and $111.69 million, respectively. According to Etherscan data, only 33.124% of Pendle ownership can be attributed to private account holders, with just one private account engaging in transactions. On January 12th, there was a cash inflow of $155,999,389 overall. Trading activity occurs more frequently on Arbitrum but typically involves smaller quantities; the top 30 holders collectively earned income from 189933.03 tokens and strengthened their market position.

9.2 Experienced holders and project participator investigation

On the Ethereum blockchain, Rank 4 invested in the project on June 16, 2021, and experienced multiple instances of sudden buying and selling activities. The investor achieved significant and reasonable profits through these transfer activities. Rank 5, as a pre-investor in the project, also made substantial profits through buying and selling transactions. On Arbitrum, Rank 6 added four asset transfers to their account at lower prices; subsequently, the price increased by up to 200% during the most advantageous period. Such investors could be investigated for the next investment actions.

Disclaimer:

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or investment product. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and the value of tokens can fluctuate significantly in a short period.

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this report is based on available data and market trends, and subsequent developments may impact the analysis.

The analysis relies on data from various sources, including blockchain explorers, exchanges, and news outlets. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, there may be unforeseen risks or events not accounted for in this report.

It is crucial to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market is subject to regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic factors that can influence prices and market dynamics.

Readers are encouraged to consult with financial professionals and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The author and Sypool disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages arising from the use of this analysis or reliance on its content.

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