PancakeSwap (Cake)Analysis & Market Overview

Sypool Protocol
11 min readJan 8, 2024

1. Project Overview

PancakeSwap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on BNB Chain that utilizes an automated market making (AMM) system. It is a fork of SushiSwap, with an almost identical codebase, but it has the advantage of cheaper and faster transactions due to being built on BSC. Additionally, it offers features such as yield farming across other protocols, lotteries, and initial farm offerings (IFO).

PancakeSwap facilitates transactions across 9 chains, including bscscan, etherscan, basescan, lineascan, and others. Among these chains, the BSC chain dominates in terms of capitalization until Jan 3rd, 2024 with a value of $1.568 billion out of the total capitalization of $1.644 billion, accounting for approximately 95.38%. The second most significant chain for transfers is Ethereum with a value of $57.07 million. Therefore, this report will primarily focus on investigating these two chains.

https://defillama.com/protocol/pancakeswap?tvl=true&mcap=true&denomination=USD.

2. Fundamental Analysis

The total supply of CAKE is 394,155,552, with a circulating supply of 251,727,104, accounting for approximately 63.86% of the overall circulation. This indicates a relatively high level of market liquidity. Furthermore, the observed 24-hour trading volume suggests a moderate activity rate of around 15.67%.

3. Token Information

4. Ownership Distribution Analysis of PancakeSwap (Cake) on Ethereum

Ethereum Chain-Low concentration, moderate trading activities

First of all, the accounts such as Rank 1: Binance 14, Rank 2: PancakeSwap: Masterchef V3, and Rank 4: PancakeSwap V3, among others highlighted in bold in the table above, are token public exchange tradings, token deposits, and token project corporation accounts. These types of accounts hold a significant ownership stake due to the token settlement by the project founders.

After excluding the project corporation accounts, the ownership held by private investors appears to account for only 12.22% of the top 30 positions. Among these, Rank3 holds the largest share with 1.78%, 66,997 tokens, equivalent to $239,181.346 at the CAKE token price of $3.57.

The transaction activities within 24 hours demonstrate relatively low levels of frequency, with the majority of transfers being initiated by the aforementioned accounts and smart contracts (Rank 18–20). Moreover, there are a few occurrences of transfer activities caused by private accounts.

#Rank1 is a Binance exchange account.

#Rank2 is a PanCake Swap account.

#Rank3

Rank 3 holds a total of 4 tokens with actual amounts, among which Cake emerges as the most crucial constituent in this portfolio, accounting for $760,500.53. The cumulative asset value on Ethereum associated with this account reaches $904.45K, with Cake representing a significant proportion of 84.07%. The remaining three tokens it possesses include ETH, HAKA, and MARSH; their respective values approximate to $45K.

On December 26, 2023, only one transfer was made to purchase 213.58K CAKE tokens which have been held until now.

#Rank4 is PancakeSwap V3 account.

#Rank5

Rank5 in the portfolio holds a total of six tokens with actual amounts, among which Cake emerges as the most crucial constituent, accounting for $117.666K. The cumulative asset value on Ethereum associated with this account reaches $120.87K, with Cake dominating the majority of the portfolio’s value proportions. Other noteworthy tokens include ETH, LOOKS, POOF, and NUX; however, their values range from $56 to $2217.

Frequent transfers associated with CAKE are executed as smart contracts and occur periodically within a specific timeframe. These transfers involve the exchange of several thousand tokens at a time, without following any discernible pattern.

#Rank 6

Rank 6 holds 26,839.45 Cake tokens, valued at $95,569.15 with a token price of $3.56. However, the most significant asset in Rank 6’s portfolio is stETH (Liquid staked Ether), which comprises 790 units and has a value of $1,868,412.597. Other notable tokens include ETH, RNDR, and SNX; all of them are implemented as smart contracts.

In addition to the significant transfer that occurred on November 25th, there were several other transactions involving Cake tokens during that day. However, none of them matched the magnitude and impact of the transfer in question. The amount of 26,840 Cake tokens being bought indicates a substantial investment or strategic move by an individual or entity.

The source of this transfer is identified as Binance Deposit 3, suggesting that it originated from one of the deposit accounts on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange platform. This information provides some insight into the origin and potential intentions behind this transaction.

#Rank 7 is the Binance 16 account.

#Rank 8 is Binance. Withdraw account.

#Rank 9

The Rank 9 account only contains one token, namely the Cake Token, with a total of 19,427.8 tokens held as a smart contract and valued at $69,176.55. Additionally, this account holds 0.0753 ETH.

Based on the information provided, it is worth noting that there were two significant transfers made on both the 21st and 31st of December. These transfers are clearly indicated by two prominent red arrows in the graph, drawing attention to their significance.

What makes these transfers particularly interesting is the timing at which they occurred. It can be observed that both investments took place after a price surge, reaching their highest point and starting to decline. This pattern suggests that the investors strategically chose to enter the market when prices were at their peak and decreased, which could be seen that the holder has an optimistic view about this token, invests it at a lower price and wishes to make a profit at a higher level in the future.

5. Ownership Distribution Analysis of PancakeSwap (Cake) on BNB Chain

BNB chain-Dispersed allocation, small concentration, frequent trading activities, and a prevailing official exchange account.

First of all, the accounts such as Rank 1, Rank 2: PancakeSwap: Cake Pool, and Rank 3: Binance: Hot Wallet 20, among others highlighted in bold in the table above, are token public exchange tradings, token deposits, and token project corporation accounts. These types of accounts hold a significant ownership stake due to the token settlement by the project founders.

After excluding the project corporation accounts, the ownership held by private investors appears to account for only 5.92% of the top 30 positions. Among these, Rank4 holds the largest share with 1.68%, 25,125,837.93 tokens, equivalent to $89,699,241.419 at the CAKE token price of $3.57. The places after Rank4 show a dispersed allocation.

It is worth mentioning that the capitalization of Cake tokens on BNB chain is 400 times more than Ethereum chain. It totally has 1.442 Billion tokens in total and is worth $5.149B, which is an astonishing capitalization.

The transaction activities within a 24-hour period exhibit relatively high levels of activity, resulting in an imbalanced trade outcome of 7.816 million units, equivalent to a cash inflow of $27.903 billion. The biggest inflow is by Rank12, it bought 7.716milion tokens worth $27.548 billion.

#Rank 1,2 and 3 are public association trading accounts.

#Rank 4

The Token Cake stands out as the sole token ranked at 4th position, possessing tangible value with a total of 25,125,837.93 tokens equivalent to $89,699,241.419 based on the current token price of $3.57.

It appears to be an intelligent contract wherein the associated account executes multiple token transactions within a single minute.

#Rank 5

The account ranked 5th possesses a total of 1039 tokens, along with 57.936K BNB tokens, which have an estimated value of $163.03 million. The image above displays the tokens with relatively substantial quantities, all of which are identified as smart contracts. Additionally, Cake holds a significant amount of 21.067M units of tokens valued at approximately $75 million.

Similarly, the account executes multiple token transactions within a single minute on a certain date.

#Rank 6 is Venus:vCAKE account.

#Rank7

Rank7 holds a total of 14 tokens with actual amounts, among which Cake emerges as the most crucial constituent in this portfolio, accounting for $53.96M.The remaining tokens that are worth exploring include CSIX, a value of approximately $44.35K. All of the tokens are smart contracts.

The account performs multiple token transactions rapidly and consecutively.

#Rank 8,9,10 and 11 are Pancake Swap and Binance trade accounts.

#Rank 12

The 12th rank on the BNB chain comprises 43 tokens, valued at $28.41 million, representing nearly all of Cake’s holdings. Apart from Cake, the remaining tokens hold minimal value; for instance, SRCX token is worth only $0.21771 at a token price of $0.004699. Moreover, all of the tokens are smart contracts.

The account also does a bunch of token transactions really quickly one after another.

#Rank13

Similarly, the 13th rank on the BNB chain consists of 19 tokens with a total value of $19.25 million, representing almost all of Cake’s holdings. Apart from Cake, the remaining tokens hold negligible value; for instance, the CEX token is valued at only $0.025925 based on a token price of $0.001728. Furthermore, all these tokens are implemented as smart contracts.

The account also conducts periodic token transactions, typically once or twice a month, involving specific amounts for buying and selling purposes.

#Rank 14

It has been revealed that The ownership of Cake token on the BNB chain, ranked 14th, accounts for 0.35% and holds a total of 2,383,332.53 tokens valued at $8.464M. Among these tokens, only four possess actual value, with Rank 14 holding the majority share.

The account also conducts periodic token transactions, typically multiple times within a few days, involving specific amounts for the purpose of buying and selling.

6. Position Distribution

2021–2023 Position Distribution

CAKE is already above major historical accumulation areas. But there is no separation. You can see that there is still a lot of cake accumulated below 4.5, which will provide resistance.

7. Contract Data

The Coinglass platform presents a real-time long/short ratio of 0.8339 over a 24-hour period. This ratio indicates a well-balanced market sentiment with a bearish tendency.

The Binance platform currently holds the dominant position in Cake contract trading. The long/short ratio exhibits a bullish inclination.

8. Recent News Highlights

8.1 The PancakeSwap community approved the proposal to “reduce the maximum supply of CAKE to 450 million”, which is expected to be implemented by January 4

The Pancakeswap community released a proposal discussion, suggesting reducing the total supply limit of CAKE from 750 million to 450 million. Pancakeswap recently launched veCAKE; the current circulating supply of CAKE is approximately 388 million.(Wu Blockchain 5:00 PM · Dec 21, 2023)

https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/1737760000729366815

8.2 PancakeSwap destroyed more than 10.16 million cakes worth about $34 million 8:37 PM · Dec 26, 2023

https://twitter.com/PancakeSwap/status/1739626558779015499

9. Summary

9.1 Token burned action

Token burning is the action taken by projects to concentrate ownership among token holders. As a result, this can lead to an increase in the price of tokens due to heightened investor confidence.

The noticing transfer by rank 9 on Etherscan and subsequent buyback announcements serve as significant reminders for investors regarding the significance of reviewing project public reports. The concept of buyback reflects the concentration of ownership among token holders while indicating holder confidence through repurchasing actions that could potentially drive up prices. Investors should consider their own investment strategies when responding to these events while conducting comprehensive analysis prior to taking any action.

9.2 Cake BNB chain & Ethereum chain

Cake on the BNB chain exhibits dispersed allocation, with a small concentration of 5.92% excluding a dominant public exchange account (89.98%). The majority of trading activities are initiated by smart contracts. It has a total token supply of 1.442 billion, and the market capitalization of Cake on the BNB chain is 400 times higher than that on the Ethereum chain (3.75 million).

Additionally, it demonstrates only a 12.22% concentration in terms of private ownership. Similar to the characteristics observed on the BNB chain, there is a low frequency of trading activities primarily driven by smart contracts.

Disclaimer:

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or investment product. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and the value of tokens can fluctuate significantly in a short period.

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this report is based on available data and market trends, and subsequent developments may impact the analysis.

The analysis relies on data from various sources, including blockchain explorers, exchanges, and news outlets. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, there may be unforeseen risks or events not accounted for in this report.

It is crucial to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market is subject to regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic factors that can influence prices and market dynamics.

Readers are encouraged to consult with financial professionals and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The author and Sypool disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages arising from the use of this analysis or reliance on its content.

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