OP Analysis & Market Overview

Sypool Protocol
5 min readNov 30, 2023

1. Project Overview

Optimism is an Ethereum Layer 2 solution that utilizes optimistic rollup technology. It drastically reduces costs and transaction times while preserving the benefits of Ethereum’s security.

2. Fundamental Analysis

The total supply of OP is 4,294,967,296. tokens, with a circulating supply of 880,917,403 tokens, accounting for 14.40% of circulation. The 24-hour trading volume represents 6.7%, which is considered moderate.

The OP mainnet and Base in the OP super chain occupy two of the top 10 TVL chains. The TVL of the OP mainnet has increased on both the monthly and weekly levels.

3. Token Information

4. Ownership Distribution

Data from Optimism scan and OK Link reveals that the top 30 addresses hold 78.23%, with the top two addresses constituting 51%. The top two addresses are OP Foundation multi-signature wallet and OP Foundation. The distribution is dispersion. Centralized exchanges occupy three of the top 30 positions. Transactions within 24 hours are mainly concentrated on the addresses of centralized exchanges. Trading activity in the last 24 hours is concentrated on centralized exchange addresses.

5. Major Holders

Address #3

There is only one transfer in the main transaction of this address, which occurred on August 17, 2022. The only asset held is OP.

Address #4

The number of transactions that occurred at this address was 3. After a simple test of the wallet, 174,161,584 OP were transferred to it on October 6, and it has not been moved yet.

After excluding foundations and multi-signature wallets, judging from the top two addresses, the holdings are stable. And the distribution is scattered. Judging from past trading behaviour, the possibility of large-scale selling in the short term is small. The possibility is even less than the selling pressure caused by the token unlocking event.

6. Position Distribution

2022&2023 Position Distribution

Judging from the two-year data, the recent pump of OP has left the main chip accumulation area (1.342), and the next chip accumulation area is around 2.220.

7. Contract Data

Real-time Long/Short Ratio (24h)

Coinglass reports a real-time long/short ratio of 0.91, indicating a balanced market sentiment with no clear bullish or bearish tendencies.

OP Contract Trading on Binance

Binance is currently the largest platform for OP contract trading. The long/short ratio leans towards the bullish side.

8. Recent News Highlights

  1. Many projects use OP Stack to easily build L2 blockchain. Judging from the cooperation between Coinbase and Optimism, the OP super chain concept will bring better prospects to Optimism.
  2. In the first quarter of 2024, Dencun will be processed to optimize L2 handling fees.

9. Summary

  1. Judging from the ownership distribution and the behaviour of the whales, the possibility of suffering heavy selling pressure is small, and in terms of price distribution, here is a nice place. If it can be confirmed to stand above the high of August, then it may reach more than 2.
  2. The emergence of OP Stack has widened the gap with Arbitrum, another L2 head chain. This can be demonstrated by the large CEXs that are competitors, Coinbase and Binance, which have both used opStack to build L2.
  3. In the first quarter of 2024, Dencun will be processed to optimize L2 handling fees, and OP will benefit from this.

Disclaimer:

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or investment product. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and the value of tokens can fluctuate significantly in a short period.

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this report is based on available data and market trends, and subsequent developments may impact the analysis.

The analysis relies on data from various sources, including blockchain explorers, exchanges, and news outlets. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, there may be unforeseen risks or events not accounted for in this report.

It is crucial to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market is subject to regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic factors that can influence prices and market dynamics.

Readers are encouraged to consult with financial professionals and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The author and Sypool disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages arising from the use of this analysis or reliance on its content.

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