LUNC, USTC Analysis & Market Overview

Sypool Protocol
7 min readDec 2, 2023

1. Overview

Terra is an open-source blockchain hosting a vibrant ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps) and top-tier developer tools. Terraform Labs is the developer of the Terra blockchain, which is designed to evolve into a new financial infrastructure for the next generation of decentralized apps.

In mid-2022, as the Federal Reserve stepped up its efforts to raise interest rates, liquidity outflowed, making it impossible to support Luna’s economic model. This led to a death spiral, and the tokens rapidly depreciated.

Mint Cash, developed by a former developer of Terraform Labs, stated that it will refer to the USTC holding and burning amounts to take airdrop. As a result, tokens such as LUNC and USTC under the Terra ecosystem are pumped.

2. Fundamental Analysis

The total supply of USTC is 9,783,570,756 tokens, with a circulating supply of 8,976,039,778 tokens, accounting for 91.75% of circulation. The 24-hour trading volume represents 124.74%, which is considered Amazing.

The total supply of USTC is 6,829,026,342,796 tokens, with a circulating supply of 5,804,567,709,961 tokens, accounting for 82.59% of circulation. The 24-hour trading volume represents 86%, which is considered HIGH.

The TVL of Terra Classic has increased significantly in the past two days, but the number of active addresses has not increased significantly. Therefore, TVL is likely to have nothing to do with the core business. The increase in LUNC has driven Terra Classic.

3. Token Information

4. Ownership Distribution

LUNC Ownership Distribution

The distribution of LUNC on the Ethereum chain is scattered. It can be seen that during FOMO, many LUNC on the DEX are drained. And there are also new positions like Address #17. Judging from the distribution, the possibility of large selling pressure is low. However, if market expectations are broken, some whales may clear their positions.

USTC Ownership Distribution

Among USTC holders on the Ethereum chain, exchanges occupy 8 of the top 30, and most of the 24-hour transaction volume is contributed by these exchanges. From the perspective of concentration, the top 30 accounted for 76.63%, which is a high degree of concentration. However, there are only two addresses that account for more than 10%. The head address may cause large amounts of short-term selling pressure.

5. Major Holders

LUNC Address #6

The earliest LUNC transaction under this address can be traced back to November 25, 2022. You can see that the recent change in position did not result in a large increase due to the impact of news. Judging from the assets held, this address mainly purchases LUNC with ETH. The first transaction occurred after the news was released and there was a wave of action.

LUNC Address #17

This trading address is different from the previous one. This address does not continue to add positions but does relatively frequent buying and selling. From the perspective of holding assets, this address holds Terra related coins such as LUNC and UST. The most recent purchase occurred at 22:37 on November 26, before the pump. Below are recent trading positions.

USTC Address #2

There are 5 transactions related to USTC under this address, which first appeared on December 3, 2022, and the counterparties were all Coinbase. The main asset is USTC. The current price level is much higher than the cost price. The likelihood of a sell-off is low.

USTC Address #3

There are 5 transactions related to USTC under this address, and the counterparty is Coinbase. Assets held by USTC. What is special is that the trading mode of this address tends to chase the rise. After chasing the rise on February 4, USTC fell sharply. But the same actions on November 26 and November 27 made the address profitable. However, February 4th was the day when the proposal to re-anchor LUNC and UST was passed. If you are an event-driven trader, the behavior of this address is worth noting.

USTC Address #4

The USTC transactions that occurred at this address were concentrated on November 27. Trading behavior is event-driven. The cost concentrated around $0.04, and after the purchase, there was a second period of rise. The subsequent pullback did not affect it. This is also an address worthy of attention.

6. Position Distribution

LUNC Position Distribution

The current price is close to the resistance area in the first half of the year.

USTC Position Distribution

Except for the tokens accumulated at the bottom, we can see that the main distribution is around 0.045, playing a support.

7. Contract Data

LUNC Real-time Long/Short Ratio (24h)

USTC 24h real-time long/short ratio is 1.05, with no obvious trend.

LUNC Contract Trading on Binance

1000LUNC is the largest contract on Binance. It is close to the long/short ratio of the real-time response of the entire market, and there is no obvious trend.

USTC 24h real-time long-short ratio is 1.05, with no obvious trend.

The largest USTC contract is on Binance, and the long-short ratio is close to the real-time response of the entire market, with no obvious trend.

8. Recent News Highlights

  1. Due to market speculation, it is related to the airdrop of Mint Cash, developed by former Terra members and the proposal to restore the USD peg of USTC. The LUNA and LUNC tokens and stablecoins UST and USTC in the Terra ecosystem have all experienced pumping.

9. Summary

  1. FOMO is mainly caused by the expectation of airdrop and USTC returning to the 1U anchoring state. These are speculations. The only certainty at present is that USTC will be introduced into the new project. In the long run, Mint Cash is to launch new projects, and it is unlikely to invest a large amount of funds to anchor USDT back to 1 US dollar. The essence is to attract market attention.
  2. In the short term, judging from the distribution of ownership and the behavior of whales, it is unlikely that there will be a large amount of selling. However, if market expectations are dispelled, some whales may clear their positions. For USTC, the behavior of the head whale is critical, as we said above.

Disclaimer:

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or investment product. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and the value of tokens can fluctuate significantly in a short period.

Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this report is based on available data and market trends, and subsequent developments may impact the analysis.

The analysis relies on data from various sources, including blockchain explorers, exchanges, and news outlets. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, there may be unforeseen risks or events not accounted for in this report.

It is crucial to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market is subject to regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic factors that can influence prices and market dynamics.

Readers are encouraged to consult with financial professionals and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The author and Sypool disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages arising from the use of this analysis or reliance on its content.

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