FTT Analysis & Market Overview
1. Project Overview
FTX was one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, committed to developing a robust platform for professional trading firms and providing an intuitive experience for first-time users. FTX offers innovative products, including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens.
2. Fundamental Analysis
FTT, the native cryptocurrency token of FTX, was launched on May 8, 2019. The total supply is 352,170,015 tokens, with a circulating supply of 328,895,104 tokens, accounting for 93.39% of circulation. The 24-hour trading volume represents 39.64%, which is considered moderate.
3. Token Information
4. Ownership Distribution
Data from Etherscan and OK Cloud Chain reveals that the top 30 addresses hold 97.28%, with the top three addresses constituting 82%. Nearly half of the top 30 addresses belong to centralized exchanges. Trading activity in the last 24 hours is concentrated on decentralized exchange addresses.
5. Major Holders
Address #1
Significant trading occurred on November 13, 2022, with no major transactions since. The address likely belongs to FTX based on the timing and asset composition (primarily ETH and FTX).
Address #2
A contract address with FTT transactions around the FTX collapse in November 2022. However, asset holdings and other token transactions continue, suggesting it is a Bitgo contract with FTX assets likely frozen.
Address #3
Binance cold wallet, interacting with other Binance addresses for FTT transactions. Since FTX’s collapse in November, a net inflow of 15,962,995 FTT tokens has been observed.
Based on the top three holders, short-term FTT selling is less likely, with a higher probability of sales post-regulatory approval. FTT appears resistant to significant sell-offs.
6. Position Distribution
During the November downtrend, positions were mainly concentrated below 5.2, with many acquired near the market bottom. A mid-term resistance is observed around 5.2.
The position distribution in 2023 is significantly smaller compared to that in 2022. Following a recent surge, positions are accumulating around 3.8. It’s important to note that Binance suspended FTT trading in 2023, resulting in data loss.
7. Contract Data
Coinglass reports a real-time long/short ratio of 0.96, indicating a balanced market sentiment with no clear bullish or bearish tendencies.
Gate is currently the largest platform for FTT contract trading. The long/short ratio leans slightly towards the bearish side.
8. Recent News Highlights
- SEC Chairman suggests potential restart of FTX if within legal boundaries.
- Continuous selling of holdings by FTX and Alameda, including SOL tokens.
9. Summary
- Mid-term resistance was observed around 5.2 based on on-chain and exchange-related data.
- Low likelihood of significant sell-offs by the top three whales in the short term (regulated influence).
- Neutral sentiment in the short term.
- The current uptrend is mainly driven by expectations of FTX reopening. However, holding FTT does not imply ownership of FTX equity or debt. The SEC has opposed treating tokens as securities multiple times. The utility of FTT in the event of an FTX restart is crucial.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or investment product. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and the value of tokens can fluctuate significantly in a short period.
Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this report is based on available data and market trends, and subsequent developments may impact the analysis.
The analysis relies on data from various sources, including blockchain explorers, exchanges, and news outlets. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, there may be unforeseen risks or events not accounted for in this report.
It is crucial to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market is subject to regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic factors that can influence prices and market dynamics.
Readers are encouraged to consult with financial professionals and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The author and Sypool disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages arising from the use of this analysis or reliance on its content.
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