ARB Analysis & Market Overview
1. Project Overview
Arbitrum, created by the Offchain Labs team, is an Ethereum Layer2 scaling solution based on Optimistic Rollup technology.
2. Fundamental Analysis
The total supply of ARB is 10,000,000,000. tokens, with a circulating supply of 1,275,000,000 tokens, accounting for 12.75% of circulation. The 24-hour trading volume represents 23.91%, which is considered moderate.
The TVL of Arbitrum ranks 4th among all chains, and it has increased significantly on both the weekly and monthly levels.
3. Token Information
4. Ownership Distribution
Data from Arbitrum scan and OK Link reveals that the top 30 addresses hold 65.16%, with the top five addresses constituting 53%. Centralized exchanges occupy two of the top 30 positions. The distribution is dispersion.
5. Major Holders
Address #3
There were two transfers to this address. After a simple test, 432,681,618 ARB were transferred at one time and have not been moved since. Almost 100% of the ARB holdings and a small amount of ETH used for gas make up the assets of this address.
Address #7
After excluding addresses related to the ARB Foundation, the ranking of address #7 increased. We can see almost the same situation as the address #3. After a simple test, a large amount of ARB was transferred to this address at once and has not been moved so far. ARB and a small amount of ETH as GAS form an asset portfolio.
Judging from the ownership distribution and the performance of the whales, the possibility of a large-scale sell-off in ARB is not high. The reason is that holders are relatively dispersed, and whales are more inclined to HODL.
6. Position Distribution
TGE occurred in March this year. From the position distribution in 2023, we can see that the chips are mainly accumulated in the (1.11, 1.26) range, which is very close to the current price. These chips will provide a certain amount of selling pressure.
7. Contract Data
Coinglass reports a real-time long/short ratio of 0.93, indicating a balanced market sentiment with no clear bullish or bearish tendencies.
Binance is currently the largest platform for ARB contract trading. The long/short ratio leans towards the bullish side.
8. Recent News Highlights
- Arbitrum has recently launched the Odyssey event, and the activity on the chain has increased.
- Arbitrum launched the STIP short-term incentive program a few days ago and plans to distribute 71.4 million ARB to the protocol to incentivize users.
- ARB has launched on Orbit, making it easier for users to build L2 and compete with OP Stack.
- In the first quarter of 2024, Dencun will be processed to optimize L2 handling fees.
9. Summary
- Judging from the relevant data on the position distribution, it is now close to the chip accumulation area, and a callback is likely.
- The ownership distribution is relatively dispersed. There are so many addresses holding less than 1%. So the possibility of large-scale selling is low.
- The short-term sentiment remains bullish.
- In the first quarter of 2024, Dencun will be processed to optimize L2 handling fees, and ARB will benefit from this.
- Compared with its competitor OP, ARB is currently leading in terms of user activities, but in the competition between Orbit and OP Stack, ARB’s Orbit is clearly lagging behind OP.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency or investment product. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and the value of tokens can fluctuate significantly in a short period.
Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented in this report is based on available data and market trends, and subsequent developments may impact the analysis.
The analysis relies on data from various sources, including blockchain explorers, exchanges, and news outlets. While efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, there may be unforeseen risks or events not accounted for in this report.
It is crucial to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market is subject to regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic factors that can influence prices and market dynamics.
Readers are encouraged to consult with financial professionals and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The author and Sypool disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages arising from the use of this analysis or reliance on its content.
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